The Doncaster Mile 2023
The Doncaster Mile, widely considered the best mile race in the country, is a highlight on a stacked Randwick card this Saturday. There’s a bit of rain around and the track will be in the soft range. Let’s try and find the winner.
Speed Map
Not an easy map to predict. Gentleman Roy looks like the likely leader. Nugget, Lindermann, Alligator Blood and Protagonist can all sit handy. There will be a massive clump of them in behind, just trying to find the right runs. Expect Fangirl, My Oberon, Golden Mile and Hope in your Heart to be near the back and the main swoopers.
Key Runners
1:
Alligator Blood
Was a brave 4th in the All-Star Mile and did lead at the 150m mark. Was held up near the corner, though and when the others had clear room to rev right up, he had to wait. Can’t see him running a bad race here with another positive map. Distance is no issue, the wet track is the only slight concern, but when you’re on speed, you can sneak away in races like these. This race is not much tougher than the ASM, where he started $3, and now we get $10. Clear winning chance at great each way odds to bet.
2:
Mr Brightside
Market favourite. Hindsight would tell you Mr Brightside was the clear and obvious in the All-Star Mile after a terrific 2nd in the Futurity and he deservingly romped in. Nothing to say he won’t run on and continue his great form here with a terrific soft track record. Don’t love Barrier 2 however in a big field like this, and at the price, happy to just let him run around. Clear winning hope.
5:
Fangirl
Just have to laugh when looking at her form record. Last four races, three 2nd’s and a third to I Wish I Win and Anamoe. Pretty handy form. The problem is, she is always chasing home hard, and she’ll be back a long way again here. Just not a profile you can confidently back. Can clearly win, but no value in the price for a backmarker.
6:
Going Global
USA Raider who has had one trial in prep for this in Aus. Last five starts over there; she’s been less than $1.50 three times. The market might provide a better guide on her closer to the jump but am happy to look elsewhere.
7:
Converge
Was all out with 200m to go in the George Ryder but held on for a place. Peak fitness for the distance now, where he has three wins, although all were on dry ground. Likely maps well and will get a chance, but the price has just zero value for him. Can win, but happy to risk.
8:
Duke Se Sessa
Irish Raider who has wins between 1600m and 2400m. Has decent form over there in Group Races but first up, this’ll be a tough test for him. Market watch as always on any horse like this, but happy to risk.
9:
Gentleman Roy
Was only fair last start in the All-Star Mile but is likely to lead here at a more suitable tempo for him. Has had four very tough runs now, and just wonder how much he has left in the tank this prep. Soft track stats aren’t great, either. Happy to risk.
11: 
Nugget
No match for the winner, but was a more than solid run in the All-Star Mile. Is drawn the absolute car park so will be wide early, desperately trying to find a spot. Looks fair odds but respect his ability to bob up in a race like this and an upset would not shock at all.
12: 
Bandersnatch
Harsh, but finally copped a really good ride and was the winner in the Prelude. Probably didn’t beat many stars there though, which is a slight concern. Has won on soft but would probably prefer it to dry out a bit. Honest, but looks a bit outmatched here.
13: 
Golden Mile
Wasn’t a great watch in the George Ryder, but started $12 there against Anamoe, Fangirl and Converge, and now we get an even bigger price. A soft track enhances the chances I’d suggest. Looks a tricky map but with clear room and some luck, will be right in this late. Definitely winning chance at good each-way odds.
15: 
Hope In Your Heart
Wasn’t really ever in the hunt last start, but should be at peak fitness for this now. Soft tracks are elite, and conditions should suit. Bit of a tricky map, but can run on and cause some shocks. Looked slightly overs and can cause an upset in this.
16: 
Zougotcha
Promising 3yo who has plenty of upside. Was a powerful win last start. Soft track no issue, but does lose Jmac for this. Can win but prefer to look at some of the more tested runners in this and happy to risk.
17: 
Protagonist
Another raider who found a win last start over some decent horses over 2000m. Probably in this a long way with the light weight. Respect any late market movements. Small winning chance.
19: 
Communist
No disgrace in his effort in the George Ryder behind Anamoe. Has two wins at the distance, and the soft track should be no issue. Not without a hope but looks fair odds to win the race.
20: 
Lindermann
Rosehill Guineas winner over Pericles, which could look a lot better or worse by the days end. Was a weird race, though, when Pericles clearly went past him, but the colt fought back. Am slightly against the distance drop again but clearly has talent and can compete here. Fair odds to surprise.
Happy to exclude all others as winning chances.
Betting Strategy
Very difficult to find a confident bet in this with so many chances. The market clearly tells us that. I’m going to stick with Alligator Blood, though at good odds EW to turn the tables on Mr Brightside.
