Tancred Stakes 2023

Distance: 2400m | Conditions: WFA | Rail Position: 4m | Track Condition: Soft 7

The Group 1 Tancred Stakes for $1,500,000 will feature at Rosehill this weekend and will be a nice appetiser before the Sydney Cup & Queen Elizabeth Stakes with the majority of these likely to feature on the last day of The Championships. With some rain around, conditions are looking to be on the wet side but let’s try find a winner!

WISHTIPS

Speed Map

There looks to be some genuine tempo in this years Tancred, with Knights Order naturally taking up the pace with Sir Lucan and 2019 Melbourne Cup winner Vow and Declare also near abouts. Arapaho and King Frankel shouldn’t have any troubles slotting in behind for cover as Stockman can also dictate his own race comfortably from a nice draw. Meanwhile Gold Trip, Cleveland and Explosive Jack won’t have much other option than to go back. 

 

Field

1.jockey silksGold Trip (13)

The 2o22 Melbourne Cup winner had plenty against him in the Ranvet and simply wasn’t able to sprint with them which made the run look worse than it was. To 2400m now and with predicted rain this will be a completely different dynamic. Class horse and the one to beat.

2.jockey silksKnights Order (6)

He appeals again on paper as the one to catch and will look to have them chasing at the turn. Is going okay but not good enough to beat these I wouldn’t think. Market is against him early.

3. jockey silksVow and Declare (15)

He’s flying this bloke. Chased Right You Are home in both runs this prep, giving him weight and looks really well placed for this third up. Up in trip is a big tick, only issue may the the wide alley. 

4.jockey silksStockman (7)

Ran second in this last year and is starting to get to the right distance with bigger plans in mind down the track. Blinkers on and will run a nice race but needs the rain to be competitive. 

5.jockey silksArapaho (3)

One of the dark horses in this race for mine. Was brave in the Apollo, then wide for most of it in the Chipping Norton and held on okay, before blitzing them in the Canberra Cup, albeit a small and relatively weak field. 2400m is a big tick but is he up to this? Early market support seems to think so. 

6.jockey silksExplosive Jack (14)

A genuine stayer who looks to have found some form again. Chased home Arapaho bravely in the Canberra Cup and  was crying out for further. He gets it here and any rain enhances his chances. 

7.jockey silksSelino (5)

Finally gets out to his preferred distance range but not going good enough.

8.jockey silksSir Lucan (10)

Has come back nicely this prep, featuring in the finish in both starts. Wide alley isn’t ideal but any rain will be welcomed. Generally shows up third-up and has credentials.

9.jockey silksCleveland (11)

Anytime Joseph O’Brien brings a stayer out, you are forced to turn your head. Has done his best work over further but clearly has lots of ability and with his turn of foot can beat these. Will be hoping the rain stays away. 

10.jockey silksKing Frankel (8)

Has been really good since return, winning the Paramatta Cup. Proven third-up and wants the trip but don’t think he’s quite at WFA level. Seems to be going as good as he can and will give a good sight.

11.jockey silksSaracen Knight (1)

Didn’t go past one, finishing last and 8L off Right You Are at Sandown first up. Hasn’t done enough to warrant any thought from me.

14.jockey silksMontefellia (9)

Well held for second behind an impressive international last week, and got home well in the Chipping Norton prior. I’m not overly convinced by her return, but was good over this trip in the Caulfield Cup. Not saying she won’t be competitive but can’t have her at the current price.

15.jockey silksTappy’s Lad (2)

First emergency and has been competitive in Brisbane benchmark races but this appears well out of his depth. 

WISHTIPS

Betting Strategy

1.jockey silksGold Trip: 2 units

9.jockey silksCleveland: 1 unit