Sydney Cup 2023
Distance: 3200m | Conditions: Handicap | Rail Position: 4m | Track Condition: Heavy 9
As we head into Day 2 of the Championships, we look at the quality field of stayers who will grind it out for their shot at the $2m Sydney Cup over 3200m this Saturday. There’s a near capacity lineup of 19, including Joseph O’Brien galloper Cleveland who heads the betting and other highly-touted international raiders. It looks like we’ll be working with a rain effected track, but let’s try find the winner!
Don’t think we need to over-analyse this too much. It looks the two Waterhouse and Bott runners will take up the running while King Frankel and Nerve Not Verve look for cover in behind. Baron Samedi may have no other option than to push on from the wide gate, as Arapaho looks to get a nice run on it’s inside. Where those like Gold Trip and Cleveland end up will depend on the rides but they’ll have their work cut out, but will be looking for a nice trail to get the last crack at them.
1. Gold Trip (16)
Would move into esteemed company if he was to win this, being the first horse since Makybe Diva back in 2004 to win the Melbourne Cup/Sydney Cup double. Got too far back in the Tancred but worked home well. Has a massive weight to contend with but has the class.
2. Knights Order (12)
Last years winner but don’t think he’s going as good this time around and has an extra five kilo’s to carry. In saying that, he finally gets the give in the track he’s been looking for and we know he’ll see out the trip. Chance
3. Baron Samedi (20)
One from the Joseph O’Brien yard and for that you have to take notice. Has been targeted for this race, loves the wet and comes with the form to make an impact. Barrier 20 is a nightmare but you can’t discount him.
We know he’s got the ability but he’s not showing it at the moment. Hard to have right now and is easing in early betting on Wishbet, so happy to dismiss.
5. Arapaho (8)
Batted well above his average to take out the Tancred in impressive fashion. Had been improving on each run leading into it and showed he can match it at WFA level. He’s rock hard fit and will show a bold effort but I think 3200m may be a stretch too far. Can’t write him off though.
ARAPAHO and @RachelK11 wins the Tancred Stakes.
The @BBakerRacing stayer is a Group 1 winner after he held off Montefilia in the $1.5m race with King Frankel in third and some great Sydney Cup trials in behind them. @tabcomau pic.twitter.com/Uikn08703R
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) March 25, 2023
6. Selino (14)
2021 winner but hasn’t won since. Waller has a way of turning form around for these stayers but still hard to make a case for this bloke.
7. Surefire (6)
Was a tough win in the Chairmans last week but had shown nothing prior to that. Rain helped and got a peach of a ride from Moreira. The ‘Magic Man’ goes back aboard for this and based on his win, there’s no reason he can’t go well again here.
8. Explosive Jack (4)
Matched it with Arapaho in the Canberra Cup which should’ve held up in the Tancred, but just couldn’t reproduce the run. He’s drawn to get a soft run here, is one of Australia’s better stayers and his runs on soft suggest he’ll have no troubles with a bog track. Could surprise.
9. Sir Lucan (15)
Won first-up and was looking good prior to the Tancred where he failed to fire. Form from those earlier races hasn’t stood up and doubt he’ll be able to turn it around for this.
11. Cleveland (17)
Market favourite after he caught the eye running through the line in the Tancred. He now gets out to a more desired trip, down in the weights and could very well demolish this lot. Barrier is a concern but still a deserved favourite.
12. High Emocean (19)
Third in the Melbourne Cup last year and produced her best run since in the Chairmans last start. Has been savaged by the barrier but there’s no knock outside that. Nice weight relief but Dolan has his work cut out.
Third in the Adelaide Cup last start and has proven himself over this trip on four other occasions, only missing the placings once. This is tougher but he’s not the worst in the field and is getting to a backable price.
14. King Frankel (11)
Proved his up to it at WFA level after making an early move in the Tancred and sticking on with it in a gritty third place finish. Gets in better at the weights here, main concerns are the trip and he’s well found in the market – probably justified.
15. Nerve Not Verve (2)
Was brave in the Chairman’s only to be done on the line. Is a genuine stayer and has credentials over the distance. Ticks plenty of boxes so can’t leave out of your exotics.
16. Gin Martini (18)
Another one cruelled by the barrier draw and loses Damien Lane for this too. Went really well in the Chairman’s, closing off for a game 2nd. Will be fit enough but this appears a bit out of her depth.
17. Timour (3)
Savaged the line in the Manion, taking out the win in a head-bobber. Form from that doesn’t appear to stack up against a lot of these but will undoubtedly see out the trip. There’s worse but happy to let go through to the keeper.
18. Alakahan (13)
Again, was brave in the Manion Cup but can’t see him having the class to win in this company.
19. Pesto (9)
Surprised at the price considering how he got home in the Chairman’s last week, finishing 5th and continuing to improve. Doesn’t appear to relish the heavy ground but definitely don’t think he’ll be the last home.
20. True Marvel (7)
Trip no issue, but not up to this.
They’ve all come up with horror draws but they’re the best four horses in the race. Best ride will go close.
11. Cleveland (17)