Pakenham Cup 2022
The warmer weather has arrived for this Saturday’s Pakenham Cup over 2500m. Conditions should be perfect and there looks to be a few winning chances in the feature. Let’s try and find the winner.
Speed Map
Swelter Magic looks the likely leader in this. Nobel Heights, Future Score and Good Idea should all be sitting handy and on speed. Milford and Vegas Knight look likely to sit midfield. The rest will be swooping from the back but all runners should have their chance to win this based on their maps.
Key Runners
1. 
Sound
Wasn’t to be last week in the Zipping Classic. There’s a bit of value in the price at $16, considering he started $8 last week in a harder race than this. Would need to lift slightly, but can win this.
2. 
Milford
Has had a big prep, running in the Turnbull and Five Diamonds before winning last week in the Eclipse Stakes. Will get a good run midfield with penty of time to storm over them late. B Shinn sticks who has been riding extremely well. Definite winning chance and looks value.
3. 
Future Score
Went around at big odds in the Ballarat Cup, finish 4th there last start. Has run around in much harder races than this and has gone well, including a 3rd in the Adelaide Cup and 4th in the Sydney Cup. Looks a good winning chance if he’s ready to go.
4. 
Good Idea
Was an ok 3rd in the Sandown Cup last week. Outside that performance, he’d done very little to say he could win this race. Few queries on the distance drop but can sit on speed and be tough late. Price looks fair, happy to risk.
5. 
Fifth Position
Has been up for a while but was a good winner at Ballarat last start over some nice horses. Does he prefer a soft track which he won’t get here? Likely to get back and can run over the top of them but will need a bit of luck to win this.
6. 
Kissinger
Deserving favourite here off his recent form with two wins, and two 2nd’s, and three of those runs over 2400m. Will be at peak fitness for this. Just a slight concern on the track. Goes better on soft than he does good. He’s a fair price to win this but in a wide open race, doesn’t look a clear standout.
7. 
Wyclif
Has been running ok this prep without breaking through. Gets back so monitor any patterns to ensure he can run on and be in the finish. I’m not totally enamoured with him, but it looks like a race he can win somewhere near his best. Monitor the betting, but is a winning
chance.
8. 
Nobel Heights
2nd behind Kissinger last start. This race looks to have been the target for him. Conditions and distance suit no worries, can be on speed and will be tough to crack late. A definite winning chance.
9. 
Vegas Knight
Held on by a hair last start at the Valley, leading all the way. Hasn’t ever gone past 2100m before, so this’ll be a decent test. Looks fairly short under $10 for a race like this. Happy to risk.
10. 
Swelter Magic
Three runs ago, came 2nd to Kissinger at Bendigo which reads ok for this. Next two runs were pretty average. Would need to bounce back in a big way to be competitive in this, but isn’t the worst outsider you’ll see on Saturday.
11. 
The Awesome Son
Was 4th against a couple of these last start. Finished off well there over 2500 but doesn’t look his best distance despite being able to get the trip. Happy to risk that he won’t pull off an upset here.
Betting Strategy
It’s a very even edition of the Pakenham Cup with no standout runner here but happy to be with Milford who can measure up and win this at decent odds the win.
