The Northerly Stakes 2023

Distance: 1800m | Conditions: WFA| Rail Position: True | Track Condition: Good 4

The Northerly Stakes, formerly the Kingston Town over 1800m headlines Day 4 of The Pinnacles Carnival over in WA. It’s a hot field and conditions will once again be perfect for racing, so let’s try and find the winner.

WISHTIPS

SPEED MAP

We look set for a genuine speed here with Zoumon, Zaaki (from wide) and Marocchino all vying for the front. Searchin’ Rocks and Be Optimistic won’t be far away with Alsephina likely to settle about three pairs back alongside Dom To Shoot, Bustler or Forgot You. Should be a big wall of them looking for runs late as they turn for home, including the likes of A Lot Of Good Men and Trix Of The Trade.

WISHTIPS

KEY RUNNERS

1: jockey silks Zaaki (10)

Comes to WA chasing his first Group 1 of the campaign and while his form doesn’t read overly well on paper, he turned in some stellar performances across the spring against the country’s best. While he’ll have to do some work from 10 and absorb plenty of pressure on speed, this is a significant class drop considering his WFA credentials and he could blitz them.

 

2: jockey silks Trix Of The Trade (7)

Hard luck story of the Railway Stakes where he was stuck on the fence, held up for space and charged home late to finish fourth. Was entitled to finish much closer than he did and with the right run he can be around the mark again. Does have a 5kg weight swing to contend with.

3: jockey silks Zoumon (15)

Was a huge run in the Five Diamonds where he was just pipped on the line after battling on bravely. Drawn wide, but maps to sit outside Zaaki and will have every chance at the top of the straight to send Ollie out with one last Group 1.

4: jockey silks Marochhino (3)

Should be on speed again but won’t get it all his way like he has recently. Up in trip suits but Railway efforts suggest he won’t be able to contend with the other heavyweights here.

5: jockey silks Dom To Shoot (1)

This bloke is airborne. Was three-wide no cover in the Lee Steere first-up and held on for second, before being shuffled back in the Railway and coming from nowhere to land third. May need some luck from the gate but if he finds it he’ll be right there in the finish.

6: jockey silksForgot You (13)

Forgot You looks overs for me. While I concede he’s not racing overly well, he’s got some serious racing credentials and should be shorter than $26.  Was dragged back in the Railway so we didn’t see anything near his best and while the map isn’t overly generous for him here, the step out to 1800m should help him. Does need to improve however.

7: jockey silks Casino Seventeen (16)

Happy to put a line through Casino Seventeen here. Does not look like his race.

8: jockey silks Mojo Rhythm (4)

Great win in front of Alsephina in the RJ Peters over 1500m and then wasn’t far away at all in the Railway last start but got all favours in the run. Up to 1800m at WFA, I’m not convinced.

9: jockey silks River Rubicon (9)

Hasn’t been near it in much weaker races than this. Can’t win.

10: jockey silksBustler (5)

Had them cooked at the 150 in the Railway thanks to a peach of a ride and is mapped to sit even closer this time round. Doesn’t get in as well at the weights which could hurt his chances, but he’s going great guns.

 

11: jockey silks Alsephina (6)

Looked around her in the Railway and will be doing it again. Every time in this prep she has loomed up and been given every chance but fails to kick on with it. Very likely it could be a similar situation here. Place chance.

12: jockey silks Searchin’ Rocks (12)

Up on speed in the Railway and failed to see it out. Can’t see her figuring in the finish off that effort.

13: jockey silksThe Velvet Queen (11)

The Velvet Queen is going much better than her odds suggest. Was huge in the Lee Steere and was eye-catching again in the Railway but it was all too late. Map is a little awkward, but the step up in distance should suit and is a genuine chance at odds.

14: jockey silks Be Optimistic (2)

Huge run on win last start but this is a major step up. Happy to watch him go round this time.

15: jockey silks Zipaway (14)

WA Guineas winner who got it all his way. Won’t be the same this time around now he’s with the A-Graders and I find it hard to see him having much of an impact, even at the weights.

16: jockey silksA Lot Of Good Men (8)

The better of the three-year olds and I think has some x-factor. Was a huge run in the Guineas off a slow speed and just missed behind Zipaway. Looks well suited out to 1800m, no weight on his back and maps to get a nice run in transit. Knockout chance.

 

WISHTIPS

BETTING STRATEGY

Tough betting race and while Zaaki clearly looks the one to beat, probably a bit short for me so and there’s a few here I’m happy to speck at odds.

jockey silks Dom To Shoot (1)

jockey silksA Lot Of Good Men (8)

1 units on Dom To Shoot
1 unit on A Lot Of Good Men