The Northerly Stakes 2022
The Northerly Stakes, formerly the Kingston Town over 1800m headlines Day 4 of The Pinnacles Carnival over in WA. Conditions will once again be perfect for racing and the track has been playing fair through the carnival. Let’s try and find the winner.
Speed Map
Not expecting any fast speed in this. Bad Wolf, Searchin Roc’s, Bustler, Trix of the Trade and Dom to Shoot can all sit on speed and be handy. Amelia’s Jewell will be trying to hold a good spot from Barrier 1. Steinem, Treasured Star and Cascadian will be happy to just find a good spot somewhere midfield. Expecting Trix of the Trade, God Has Chosen and Alaskan God to be at the back. A strong tactical ride will be needed to win this.
Key Runners
1. 
Cascadian
The market favourite. Hard to fault in any way really. Godolphin are flying, and won the Winterbottom with Paulele. McDonald comes over to ride. Wasn’t disgraced in the Champions mile when going to the outside fence and zooming home in exceptional sectionals. Has a massive class edge on the field here. Under $3 doesn’t seem like much of a spoil though with where he might land in run. The clear top pick, but no value in betting on him.
2. 
Dom to Shoot
Did finish 3rd in this race in 2020 as a $10 chance that day. Won last week with a good ride from Damien Oliver who isn’t with him for this. Could surprise as a place chance and has clear ability to run a good race.
3. 
Bad Wolf
Has run some ok races at big odds in listed company but the step up here looks
like a big test for him.
4. 
Startrade
Flying. If they’re running on, has to be a chance to rattle into a place once again here. A brave horse who won’t run a bad race in this, but is fairly priced.
5. 
Kaptain Kaos
Showed a little more in the Railway compared to the two starts before that but doesn’t look to be racing well enough to be a winning chance in this.
6. 
God Has Chosen
Just like heading into the Railway, hasn’t really shown anything to say he’s up to winning at this level and happy to risk him again here.
7. 
Ironclad
Started $11 in the Railway but didn’t show anything near his best during the race. I like the jockey switch but is likely to once again be near last leading into the straight. Not sure if he’s got the turn of foot to beat them all home, but will run far better than he did last start.
9. 
Notorious One
Over raced in the Railway and didn’t find any clear room late to finish right at the back. Can obviously improve on that effort but looks another big task in this.
10. 
Trix of the Trade
The Railway winner with a perfect ride from Troy Turner. Hasn’t won at any distance past 1600m despite running well in races over those distances. Is talented enough clearly to take this out, but the Railway looked the Grand Final, and this will be a tough test to produce a similar performance. Risking him at the price.
11. 
Alaskan God
The Railway favourite didn’t show much in what was a tricky task for him from the barrier. Up in distance to a more suitable range you’d have to say. Can run well in this and looks far more suitable. Winning chance.
12. 
Steinem
A last start 2nd in the Group 2 Matriarch at Caulfield, finally getting off a soft track. Have to respect the stable heavily bringing him here for this. Fresh for this. Definite winning chance and a market watch.
13. 
Searchin Roc’s
Started $11 in the Railway and now we can take $61 here. Up in distance and weight but is an on speed horse who can make all of her own luck from up front. Isn’t a clear winning chance, but the odds are pretty high for her.
14. 
Treasured Star
Went right back in the Railway and held up in the straight, but was finishing like a rocket. Pike sticks, inside barrier means they can kick up and find a spot and get plenty of clear room late. Can win this without question, and if Pike jags a few wins early, watch the money come for her.
15. 
Bustler
Had won three in a row before falling just short to Amelia’s Jewel in the Guineas. Next to no weight for this, will be on speed and can give this race a red hot crack. Distance is the query but expecting him to see it out. Looks a big winning chance at good odds.
16. 
Amelia’s Jewel
The Guineas winner, mowing down Bustler on the post. Up against the older horses here which is a step up but she gets no weight. Barrier 1 could be a gift or curse but expect her to kick up to try and hold a good spot. Any clear room in the straight, she can burn them off quickly. Fair odds for her talent in this and looks the danger to the raider.
Betting Strategy
For a horse who just doesn’t always put it together, Cascadian is very short for this. Happy to
spec on the lightweights to try and get him beat.
