The Caulfield Guineas
The Caulfield Guineas is always a heavily anticipated race as the appetiser before we get into the biggest and prestigious Group 1’s of the Spring and this race looks no exception. Let’s try and find the winner.
Not expecting a quick tempo here. Tijuana goes forward and so does Bank Maur with even luck from the wide barriers. There’s going to potentially be some hard luck stories in a tightly bunched field but I expect Golden Mile and Berkley Square should have enough room to peel wide on the straight. Osipenko, Millane and Foujita San could be the unlucky ones parked three wide without luck.
Been a very good prep so far and was a deserving winner last start. Controls the race again here, and with so many bunched together behind him, he could just sneak away and leave them with too much to do. The odds appeal, especially at the place for him.
2: Berkeley Square
A versatile runner here who should have a winning chance no matter where he lands in run. If the tempo is slow, suits even more which I expect it to be. First go at 1600m the only query. Could start favourite. Big winning chance.
3: Golden Mile
Comes from the Golden Rose which is a fair level above this lot, but really struggled late over 1400m, and now goes to 1600m. Gets Mcdonald again, Godolphin are airborne but off his last run where he had every chance to win, there’s too many questions to take the $2.80 here. Might drift, but happy to risk all together.
Has run against some pretty damn good horses this prep including two winners who are now in the Everest. Nowhere near the level of opposition here, which is a tick. Map a slight issue, but expect him to run better than his price suggests here.
5: Bank Maur
I expect it to go forward as mentioned in the speed map, but if he doesn’t, it could be a rough watch. Plenty potting the Sandown form but there’s enough from that to win here. We’ll know in the first 100m. Happy to risk.
6: Foujita San
Starts the race effectively inside the train station. The map makes it very difficult, no matter whether they go forward or back from there. Expect a drift from the $20 price we’re seeing now.
Was closest to Aft Cabin in the wild weather race last start so improvement here is likely. I have it mapped last which makes the task difficult but Lane is one of the best at weaving through them. Market watch.
$21 winner before his spell so he can bob up but that race hasn’t stacked up since and this looks very difficult.
A real X Factor in this field. Has form links that places him right in this. May need a dry track? Tim Clark is a strong booking. Expect him to shorten from the $21 we can get now. Place chance.
Another one from the Aft Cabin race, finished strong there. Blinkers on and Oliver on but the price seems a bit short off his runs so far. Can win but prefer a bit longer than $14.
11: Elkington Road
Huge class jump here. Is 2/2 though and will handle the wet track. Could sneak a place.
12: Sir Bailey
Was in the race behind Aft Cabin where the jockeys couldn’t even see. Will improve off that. The map looks the issue but isn’t hopeless here. Respect the camp to have him right.
Finished strong off a slow tempo last start. Williams off which is a slight negative although Shinn is riding very well. If the rail is holding up, has to be a chance from barrier one. Will get a good sit on them and have every opportunity to win.
14: Lethal Thoughts
Can’t draw too much off the last run where they probably shouldn’t have even raced. Likely to improve but this looks a tough ask.
15: The Fortune Teller
Ran well enough behind Bank Maur at Sandown and Jamie Kah does stick but the price seems fair in a race like this.
Not up to this grade and never like Meech on non leaders.
17: Angry Skies (E)
If he gains a start, not sure about the placement here but has talent as shown from the well followed Swan Hill race. Keep an eye on him.
18: Muramasa (E)
If he gets a start, was nowhere near Tijuana despite finishing well last start. Can’t have here.
This is wide open, and I give many of them a chance at winning this. Will have a small spec bet on Tijuana who could be hard to hold out.
1 unit Each way on Tijuana at $9 / $3
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