Australian Cup 2023
Distance: 2000m | Conditions: WFA | Rail Position: 8m | Track Condition: Soft 5
The Group 1 Australian Cup headlines the Flemington card over 2000m. It’s been slightly wet leading in but the track should play fine. Let’s try and find the winner.
Speed Map
Tough one to predict here. Smokin’ Romans and Numerian will likely lead. El Patroness, Right you Are, Pounding, Steinem and Nonconformist can all be active and handy on speed. Tactical rides will be needed in the middle of the pack with a big clump of them all together. Hezashockea, Regal Power, Cascadian will likely be near the back and swooping late.
Key Runners
1. 
Cascadian (11)
The favourite and clear class horse. Was a big run in the All Star Mile to finish 2nd. Likely near the back again. Just feel like he needs a lot to go right in his races to win and is a horse I’ll never find, especially at the $3 mark. Obvious top chance, but zero value to back him.
4. 
Nonconformist (14)
A good win last start in the Blamey, beating a few of these in this race. First up, so he’ll be fitter for this now, and Childs goes on so he’ll find a positive position up front. Very little value in his price and was happy to leave him alone to repeat something similar to win, which will be needed.
5. 
Emissary (19)
Had two good runs since his return at short SP’s and now we get largely a field not much harder than anything he’s run against and he’s $15. Is drawn the car park but plenty underneath him want to go back anyway so it may not be too hard to find a spot. Somewhere near his best can easily win this. Looks good each way odds and a big winning chance.
6. 
Smokin’ Romans (5)
The likely leader in this so he sets the tempo. Was ok last start in the
Blamey. Conditions won’t be a problem. Can go close and potentially sneak this but would need a fair few behind him to fail. Fair odds.
7. 
Numerian (1)
Had three trials leading into last start and wasn’t really in the hunt against some better horses. Another trial now but the distance should be no issue. Can be on speed and be tough to beat late, but needs to show something now because it’s been a while between drinks. Willing to risk.
8. 
Hezashocka (3)
Rattled home ok last start but never looked likely and was so far back in the run. Similar circumstances set up here for him. Fitter for the run though and Oliver sticks. Has run well at big odds as well so wouldn’t completely discount.
9. 
Pounding (9)
Has had two good runs this prep, with a very decent 6th in the All Star Mile last start. 2nd fastest L200M in that race. Needs to improve but distance should be no issue. Fair odds but can be an upset.
14. 
Steinman (12)
Was tipped heavily by the stable pre race and delivered. Was a wild tempo to the 600m mark set by the leader which will not happen here. Has talent but think it’s even enough that plenty will be running on with him. Can win but little value in the price.
15. 
Bank Maur (7)
Very strong run last start in a good win off the fence at Moonee Valley.
Distance no issue off that run but was a very slow tempo race. Quicker here hurt him? McNeil goes back on as well which is no negative. Market watch on him.
16. 
Virtuous Circle (2)
Virtuous Circle – Had to avoid an unfortunate bit of traffic last start but ran home ok enough. Does have some early career wins over some nice horses. Can be in this but will need luck. Fair odds.
*Don’t think any of the other runners are a winning chance.*
Betting Strategy
Obviously a wide open race filled with many runners who are capable of hitting a level that can win this race. Happy to have a small spec on Emissary who looks to have come back well and can run home very strongly in this.
1 units EW on Emissary
