Black Caviar Lightning Stakes
Distance: 1050m | Conditions: WFA | Rail Position: True | Track Condition: Good 4
The Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes highlights a great day of racing at Flemington this Saturday. It’ll be warm leading into the day and the track will be bone dry and very quick for the card. Let’s try and find the winner.
Straight race here so it’ll be interesting to see if the outside fence is in play. It seems unlikely though with Nature Strip getting barrier 1 and everyone following him the whole way. He will lead, with Fire and Marabi pressuring up on speed. Coolangatta, Milanae, Roch ‘n’ Horse and Bella Nipotina all should be midfield. Expecting big runs late from September Run, Baller, I Wish I Win and Buenos Noches to be the the tail of the field.
Nature Strip – Last year’s runner up but there’s no Home Affairs this time. Loves the track, the straight, and is the deserving favourite. Is $2 fair though first up, when he hasn’t probably shown his absolute best since returning from Royal Ascot? Anywhere near his best, he wins this easily, but the risk vs reward is right on the borderline.
2:I Wish I Win
Hard to know what sort of a talent we’re dealing with here coming off a terrific Spring. Has different targets in mind however and clearly looks a 14-1600m horse, as opposed to this distance. Maybe he’s good enough to outsprint them? Didn’t look any value in the current price, but can win.
What a great horse he’s been in his career. Loves the straight and has won at Flemington, but no wins over the short trip. Would need a fair few to be off the game to pinch another win but expecting to run honest again.
Talk about a step up. Running well would be a big tick here, but looks an all mighty task to finish in the top three of a field like this.
Melham gets the ride here for the first time and when he combines with the stable, their record is very good. Won’t be on speed but has won at the distance before. Could surprise if others aren’t at their top. Watch the betting late.
6: Roch ‘N’ Horse
I love how they place this horse, plenty of spells in between runs to just launch at races. Last two runs, a win over Nature Strip and a 2nd to Private Eye. Reads pretty good for this, albeit over 1200 and not 1000m. Has to be a winning chance once again and looks good each way odds.
7: September Run
Is never disgraced in these types of fields but it does look a little beyond her. Has never won at the distance either. I like Blake Shinn on though for the first time, and a place wouldn’t surprise.
Returning after nearly a year away. The longest price we’ve ever gotten for her was in the Oakleigh Plate at $2.60 so $9 right now looks pretty tasty. No idea how she’ll go first up, with no wins over the distance and looks in for a big Autumn, but anywhere near her best, she can win. Watch the betting late.
9: Buenos Noches
Seems a bit of an odd placement for a race like this over the distance. Clearly has talent but not sure this sort of race is his go. Was happy to risk and be proven wrong.
Has been running in decent races with the likes of Giga Kick, Golden Mile and Jacquinot but hasn’t shown anything to suggest he’s a winning chance in this field. Can run well but is fairly priced for the blowout.
Trialled well and has had big wraps from the stable and Jamie Kah leading into this. Has been down the straight before which was a last start 5th in the Coolmore. Proven at the distance, will be on speed, likes the dry track and will be in this a long way. Looks a great winning chance at good each way odds.
— Racing.com (@Racing) February 19, 2022
There’s zero qualms with anyone who wants to stick with the champ in Nature Strip for this, but $2.10 just seems lean for realistically what is still a lot of unknowns. If he gets to over $2.50, I’ll save on him, but I doubt he hits that price without a poor parade, and he rarely ever stays in the ring too long for it to matter.
I’m happy to look at Coolangatta instead who will be right there with him and can be too strong late.
2 units Coolangatta EW at $7 plus.